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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|